IMF has listed the global winners and losers on the economic ladder for 2022 and same time predicted the position of the major players for 2023 and 2024.

But I have a reason to seriously question IMF’s ability, or honesty in such predictions. And yes, the war against Russia has lots to do with it. 

But first, let us check what the report says. It says advanced countries had a growth of 2.7% in 2022, which will fall to 1.2% this year and creep up to 1.4% next year. BRaking that down, it predicts the figures for the US are 2.0, 1.4 & 1.0. I have many reasons to seriously doubt such estimates. Everybody knows US GDP on purchasing power actually shrank last year and did not at all grow 2%. It however predicts an actual shrinkage of the British economy in 2023. But surprisingly, most European economies will continue to rise, though just barely above zero.

Then comes the so called developing nations. Earlier they used to call the rest as backward nations, but the west has learned to be more polite these days. China, considered as the most powerful economy in the world today, outpacing the Americans, are slotted within this developing group.

Check China, the largest economy today. It’s growth is reported to have been 3% last year, but expected to jump to 5.2 this year. Among the large economies, India seems to be the shining example in this report, and much talked about due to its contribution within BRICS+ and the collective clout of this group agaisnt the developped group. Along with them, there are more potential BRICS+ joiners that are also star performers – Saudi Arabia, Middle East & Central Asia.

Note – Russia is missing here.

It has taken me a long time to figure out that rankings, past statistics and future predictions of economic activity of nations around the world, projected by mostly renowned western intitutions, are tainted and in some cases, fraudulent, to give the wrong impression to readers, say about promoting Russophobia.

This is not unlike how Facebook, Google search, YouTube, the US Government, and mostly all media channels also project the news heavily biased to suit agendas of the folks that own or control these institutions.

Of recent – I have spent time and effort to dig into Russia, to figure out how a country, Russia, can not only fight off the collective might of the entire western nations plus a few non-westerns (e.g. Japan), if Russia’s Economy was less than a twentieth of the collective West+. To me, modern warfare is highly dependent on the economic, industrial, resource base & scientific details of the parties engaged.

On paper, the collective west has more than twenty times the economy, and incalculably high amount of financial, legal, social, and industrial capacity. Russia has often been described dismissively as a country that is little more than a gas station, ruled by a despotic dictator.

If the economic forecast, and calculations of industrial base are correct, then, considering the attack on all fronts, military, economic and everything else, directed agaisnt Russia by USA/NATO, then Russia should have been dismembered, sliced and gobbled up within a month of the beginnign of hostilities.

But the way it looks, the collective west is fallling on its face.

To me, this is a very strong indication that the western projection of most all data, economic included, is fradulent and has been misinforming the people about facts and misleading them down the wrong path.

Russian economy, after the Yeltsin induced free fall, was considered to be ranked way below the top ten and somewhere at par with perhaps Spain. I know in my guts thats a lie, because Russia is able to shrug off near total sanction by the entire west, and is able to outproduce the west in military hardware, and able to invesnt, design and produce deadlier weaponry, staying ahead of the west, and its currency is strengthening instead of weaking.

This tells me two things:

1) Russian economy, science and industrial base are far stronger than projected.

2) The economic predictions by the western financial institutions are crap.

I have mulled into the reports, as a marine engineer and not as an economist, which I am not, I have actually placed a lot of data in my own giant spreadsheets to check how they look if I try to projust something taking into account various factors within my own knowledge and hunch.

PricewaterhouseCooper International is an intriguing source. It is a vast network of accountancy firms spread across the globle, that provides assurance, tax and advisory services. They are everywhere, including India. They make their own predictions, and some of it is interesting, and often different in the message they send out, compared to the US Govt, the World Bank or the IMF, or what you might read in Financial Times.

The attached chart is from this network of accountancy firms. If you see their 2016 data, the so called emerging economies already carry more punch than the so called advanced nations (G7 versus E7). You did not know about it because G7 is an established group that meet every year and take collective decisions. E7 did not up to recently. They do not even identify themselves as E7. But much of that is now changing, thanks to BRICS+, and the Ukraine conflict and US hegemony.

Thus, the Ukraine conflict has been a massive game changer that is threatening to shred the existing world order as well as Klaus Schwab’s GEF based plans of a new kind of world order.

By 2050, it looks like game over for the west. Six out of seven top econolies will be non western, the US being the only exception. Indonesia, who nobody hears about, will be the 4th largest economy in the world.

But what about Russia? Well, PWC is also a western network. Somehow, their study is likely based on western projections. Even then, Russia is present, at 6th place in both columns. This too, I suspect, is biased and wrong.

I have heard some Dutch experts comment that Russian Economic and Industrial might is not understood well by the west and they are now highly biased against Russia, hence the projections show them absurdly lower than others. I think he was speaking the truth.

WIthout being an economist (thank heavens), I suspect the Russian industrial/scientific/economic acumen, combined with their near inexhaustible richness in resources like energy, food, and gold, their actual ranking should place them between 3rd and 4th today. I cannot predict 2050 since it is too far away.

Then, considering the top Emerging nations – E7, is already stronger than the G7, and are mostly aligned behind Russia in this Ukraine conflict, I cannot help but suspect that the combined West might be facing a long term sunset scenario. The only direction open for them is sliding downhill. Unfortunately, USA exerts a near iron grip on the groups outlook and activity. So USA is likely to drag the rest of the west along with them.

IF we do not have a nuclear holocaust, or a financial meltdown with GEF initiated digital currency surveillance world, which the non-West are possibly likely to reject sooner or later, once they get their act together – I think it may be game over and a reverse migration era will start. People of the west will try to learn Mandarin, Hindi, and Russian, and hope to get a job away from home, much like many Europeans for two hundred years, took all their belongings and hopped a ship heading for New York.

I am still mulling how to connect these dots. But I am already guessing that Russia is at the fulcrum. It is neither eastern nor western. It is Euratian. It appears close to west, but is anchored in Asia. Russia is, in my thinking, likely to be the largest swing state.

Apart from Russia being at the fulcrum, there are more things to connect the dots. Example:

1. The coming collapse of not just the US dollar, but the entire banking system, where we are to see out money in baks dsappearing or being inacessible. There ill be bank runs across the planet. A new kind of mandemic is to be declared globally – the cyber pandemic, and everybody will be subject to severe control on expenditure.
2. Russia will be blamed for the pandemic, although Russia will have nothing to do with it and the crisis was either organic, since the banking was going to collapse on its own weight for creating too much fake money.
3. BRICS+ is seriously chaning the global balance of power. Ukraine and its importance, along with NATO, are all going to be less important.
4. US acknowdges defeat in Ukraine and stops funding it, and begins to pour money into Indo-pacific region to bolster AUstralian naval power to challenge, along with the US and UK the new global enemy – China.
5. Biden is asked to step down due to corruption charges. Kamala Harris becomes the short term president. She has no chance to win any election on her own, so the Democrats will not nominate her to lead the party in the next election, making her a lame duck with nothing to lose. She will, therefore, declare tha the US is pulling out of Ukraine, essentially conceding defeat.
6. New shift to Indo-Pacific under new alliance called AUKUS (Astralia+UK+US) will also mean US funding for new nuclear.subs and weaponry to be given to Australia will need huge funds, so Europe/NATO/Ukraine will stop receiving funds. This is the death knell for both Ukraine and Europe.
7. Role of India not properly undestood – this has remained under the radar till now. But world’s focus eventually will turn here. Will India compete with Russia for for the top spot as the Swing State. Indian Govt is tight lipped but appears to be very sane, level headed and not inclined to brag about whats going on. Watch India.

Here is my latest rant on the topic: